Preview: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Troyes – prediction, team news, lineups

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Sports Mole previews Sunday’s Ligue 1 clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Troyes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Paris Saint-Germain‘s stroll to the finish line in Ligue 1 continues with Troyes‘visit to the Parc des Princes on Sunday evening.

Les Parisiens were pegged back from 3-1 to draw 3-3 with Strasbourg last time out, while visitors hit dethroned champions Lille for three without reply.


Match preview

Paris Saint-Germain manager Mauricio Pochettino pictured on April 23, 2022© Reuters

The pressure would normally be off Paris Saint-Germain having already wrapped up the Ligue 1 title, but both players and Mauricio Pochettino may be fighting for their futures at the club in the final few weeks, with the trigger-happy board sure to take note of any underwhelming results between now and the end of the season.

Kylian Mbappe‘s brace and assist for Achraf Hakimi propelled PSG into a 3-1 lead against European outsiders Strasbourg at the Stade de la Meinau last weekend, but Marco Verratti‘s own goal preceded a stoppage-time volley from Anthony Caci to force a share of the spoils.

Of course, the only question left is how many points PSG will accumulate before the curtain closes on the campaign, with the champions no longer able to break the 90-point barrier but seeking a perfect haul from their final three games against Troyes, Montpellier HSC and Metz to hit an impressive 88.

Back-to-back draws with Lens and Strasbourg have left Les Parisiens at risk of going three games without a win in Ligue 1 for the first time since April 2019, but Pochettino’s side have only dropped four points at home all season and had won eight in a row at the Parc des Princes before that title-clinching draw with Lens.

Not since December have PSG been shut out on their own turf in Ligue 1, and with Mbappe seeking to become the first man to top the goalscoring and assist charts in the same season, that streak is showing no signs of ending anytime soon.

Troyes' Yoann Touzghar celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 27, 2022© Reuters

Teaching the 2020-21 champions a footballing lesson is certainly the ideal warm-up to a clash with the reigning holders, as Lille had no answer to Troyes’ superiority in a 3-0 thumping for ESTAC in front of the home crowd at the Stade de l’Aube.

Jocelyn Gourvennec‘s side simply self-imploded last weekend, finishing the game with nine men and giving away three penalties – with Florian Tardieu converting two of them while Ike Ugbo netted another – and Lille duo Renato Sanches and Burak Yilmaz both saw red in a disastrous day for Les Dogues.

Having ended a four-game winning run in emphatic fashion, Troyes have very nearly staved off the threat of relegation to sit 15th in the table – five clear of Saint-Etienne in the relegation playoff spot – and they should not be in any danger of dropping into the bottom two now.

Facing former Ligue 2 foes Lens and Lorient in their final two matches of the season, Bruno Irles‘s side head to the capital having won just one of their last seven Ligue 1 matches away from home – losing five of them – but they have only failed to find the back of the net in one of their last nine on the road.

Troyes held their own against PSG at the start of the season but ultimately slumped to a 2-1 defeat to the champions back in August, but Pochettino’s side ought to have their wits about them after the demolition job that their opponents served up against Lille on matchday 35.

Paris Saint-Germain Ligue 1 form:

Troyes Ligue 1 form:

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Team News

Mauro Icardi in action for Paris Saint-Germain in December 2021© Reuters

PSG lynchpin Idrissa Gueye will return to the squad after serving a suspension in the clash with Strasbourg, while Neymar and Presnel Kimpembe will sit out the meeting with Montpellier but are available for this one.

Leandro Paredes, Julian Draxler and Mauro Icardi remain out of contention for the champions, but Abdou Diallo is back in training and could force his way into the squad – the same can be said for Colin Dagba if he shakes off a calf complaint. Lionel Messi will also need assessing due to rib pain.

Nuno Mendes will aim to displace Juan Bernat on the left flank for Sunday’s game, and Pochettino could opt to hand Keylor Navas one of his final starts for the club before an expected summer exit.

As for Troyes, their memorable victory over Lille did come at a cost, as defender Youssouf Kone was only on the pitch for 14 minutes with an adductor issue that has rendered him unavailable for Sunday’s game.

Issa Kabore also came off in the dying embers of that win but should be available here, while Yoann Salmier, Karim Azamoum, Abdu Conte, Adil Rami, Gauthier Gallon and Lebo Mothiba are all out of contention for ESTAC.

Barring the likely inclusion of Yasser Larouci to cover for the injured Kone, it should be as you were for Irles’s side after such an emphatic victory, with Jessy Moulin holding the fort in goal. Mama Balde is also back from a two-game ban to boost Troyes’ attacking options.

Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Navas; Marquinhos, Kimpembe, Ramos; Hakimi, Pereira, Verratti, Mendes; Messi, Mbappe, Neymar

Troyes possible starting lineup:
Moulin; Biancone, Palmer-Brown, Larouci; Kabore, Tardieu, Kouame, Chavalerin; Dingome; Ripart, Ugbo


SM words green background

We say: Paris Saint-Germain 4-0 Troyes

While nothing should be taken away from Troyes’ victory over Lille, it could certainly have been a different story had Gourvennec’s side not lost their heads and given away three spot kicks.

Facing a PSG side desperate to return to winning ways at the Parc des Princes fortress surely only spells one result, with Pochettino’s side aiming to break the 80-point barrier with a straightforward success.


Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 86.89%. A draw has a probability of 9.3% and a win for Troyes has a probability of 3.81%.

The most likely scoreline is Paris Saint-Germain 3-0 Troyes with a probability of 12.95% and the second most likely scoreline is Paris Saint-Germain 2-0 Troyes with a probability of 12.52%.


Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5: data


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