The Three game EPL DFS slate sees Everton and Burnley in two battles to avoid relegation against tough opposition. Chelsea comes in as favorites against an improving Leicester side that has Jamie Vardy back to lead the attack. Everton plays host to Crystal Palace where visitors have a bottom tier 0.96 expected goals. Everton are desperate to find goals after failing to put away Brighton in their last outing. Palace has found at least one goal in three straight matches after a slump of four matches being shut out. The total in this match sits at -125 (BetMGM) to the under 2.5 goals and I like the over at plus money. Burnley travel to Villa Park where the home side has kept just two clean sheets in their previous nine outings. Aston Villa will look to put Burnley away and we will touch on key goal hunters from the hosts. The ownership will flow to Chelsea at -250 (BetMGM) favorites. Leicester City offers high upside plays to leverage in GPP’s.
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Forwards / Midfielders
Ollie Watkins (DraftKings: $ 6,800, FanDuel $ 18)
John McGinn (DraftKings: $ 5,800, FanDuel $ 15)
Aston Villa averages 1.26 expected goals at home, which sits bottom six in the EPL. There are two players that stand out with home field advantage against a Burnley side that has a mid-tier road defense. First off, Ollie Watkins is too cheap on DraftKings. He needs a goal contribution to matter in DFS, but fortunately he leads the home side in that department. Watkins’ 25% goal contribution is complimented by 2.59 shots per match. His 40.5% on target rate also leads the club. Watkins comes in as a GPP play with a low expected outing and the cost of rostering Chelsea and the Everton forwards.
The value play for Aston Villa is John McGinn. McGinn shares sets and would see a higher floor with Douglas Luiz out of the starting eleven. His 3.16 crosses per match and 2.81 scoring chances created lead his team. The salary for McGinn can hit over 1.5x value with a combination of 4.58 won tackles and interceptions, which trials only Matty Cash on the team sheet. The over two fouls committed are nullified with just shy of three fouls drawn for the Aston Villa midfielder and he offers enough salary relief to make a core play, allowing us to spend up for the Chelsea plays.
On FanDuel I have little interest in McGinn. Watkins is priced in the range above Jamie Vardy which is not ideal despite the better match up. I lean Vardy over him as well as James Maddison. Watkins is a clear play to me over Richarlison at the same $ 18 asking price. Instead of McGinn I would prefer the higher on target attempts from a cheaper Anthony Gordon or Demarai Gray.
Harvey Barnes (DraftKings: $ 7,200, FanDuel $ 14)
James Maddison (DraftKings: $ 9,200, FanDuel $ 16)
To harp on Chelsea’s roster serves little in the way of helping us taking down a GPP. For Cash games three of them are fine, I would warn against the cost of the goalkeeper as Leicester feels like a sneaky play. The top options for Chelsea are listed in order of preference down under other options. Leicester City has a form of nine one plus goals in last eleven outings. The shutouts came without Vardy. He brings a stretch element and frees up opportunity for Harvey Barnes and Maddison. Barnes averages 2.93 shots per match which sits just above Maddison’s 2.80. Maddison mimics Vardy’s on target rate at 44% and offers a floor with a drawn foul rate of 2.91 per match. He averages 4.80 crosses per match and Barnes sits with 1.76 via the open play.
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Both are GPP-only plays due to the matchup on the road against a top three defense and the elevated prices. Barnes sits third in overall goal contribution with a lean on the split to the assists. His asking price on DraftKings is just below that of Vardy. Vardy, averages a goal in 77% of his starts, and is one of my favorite GPP plays with a healthy starting eleven form Leicester City. James Maddison on FanDuel is a top value play.
Other Options: Mason Mount (DraftKings: $ 9,900, FanDuel $ 21), Christian Pulisic (DraftKings: $ 8,300, FanDuel $ 18), Romelu Lukaku (DraftKings: $ 7,300, FanDuel $ 20), Anthony Gordon (DraftKings: $ 7,700, FanDuel $ 13), Wilfried Zaha (DraftKings: $ 7,900, FanDuel $ 18), Philippe Coutinho (DraftKings: $ 6,600, FanDuel $ 19), Danny Ings (DraftKings: $ 6,300, FanDuel $ 16).
Marcos Alonso (DraftKings: $ 7,100, FanDuel $ 15)
Matthew Cash (DraftKings: $ 4,800, FanDuel $ 13)
Marcos Alonso handles a range of indirect set shares for Chelsea. He averages 1.82 shots per match and 5.28 crosses per match. His defensive metrics build a floor with 4.76 won tackles and interceptions per match. Leicester City’s defense is terrible. They allow 1.65 expected goals per match which sits bottom five in the EPL. Their mid tier ranked 11.8 open play crosses per match will be exploited by Chelsea and Alonso’s salary offers a lot of upside regardless of whether he contributes on a goal or not.
The Aston Villa side looks under-priced with the exception of Lucas Digne. He does well with goal contribution and 6.41 crosses per match. His 3.47 won tackles and interceptions help the floor with goal contribution as the upside. Across the pitch form Digne is Matthew Cash. He sits among the team leaders with 4.93 won tackles and interceptions and 1.41 drawn fouls per match. Cash is not shy about taking chances at the net and has doubled Digne’s goal contribution mark. He comes in with a $ 1,000 discount, too.
Other Options: Reece James (DraftKings: $ 6,900, FanDuel $ 15), James Justin (DraftKings: $ 4,200, FanDuel $ 9).
Vicente Guaita (DraftKings: $ 4,100, FanDuel $ 8)
Emiliano Martinez (DraftKings: $ 5,200, FanDuel $ 10)
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